Soybean contracts are recording lower prices in electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The market is realizing some of the profits accumulated throughout the week, after reaching its highest level in almost a month in the previous session, driven by the recovery in the vegetable oil markets.

So far, contracts expiring in January/25 are still recording a weekly gain of 2.7%.

According to Reuters, another factor influencing prices is the reduction in concerns that a trade war with China, triggered by the newly elected president Donald Trump, could harm agricultural exports from the United States. Traders point out that sales will probably not be affected until next summer's harvest and that importers may even increase purchases before Trump's inauguration in January.

Investors are paying attention to the expectation that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will reduce its estimates for the 2024/25 soybean harvest and final stocks. The monthly US and global supply and demand report will be published this Friday (08), at 2 pm.

Analysts consulted by international agencies are betting on US stocks of 535 million bushels in 2024/25. In October, the USDA forecast was 550 million.

For production, the market expects a figure of 4.553 billion bushels for 2024/25. In October, the Department predicted a harvest of 4.582 billion bushels.

Regarding the global supply and demand scenario for soybeans, the market is betting on final stocks in 2024/25 of 134 million tons. In October, the figure was 134.7 million. For 2023/24, the market expects a figure of 112.3 million, slightly below the 112.4 million indicated last month.

Contracts due in January 2025 are trading at US$10.20 1/4 per bushel, down 6.00 cents, or 0.58%, compared to the previous close. Yesterday (07), soybeans closed sharply higher, led by gains of over 4% in oil. Information about lower palm oil production in Malaysia and increased demand from Indonesia boosted oil prices. In addition, there is a feeling that Trump's victory will result in additional tariffs on oil recovered from China, with greater domestic demand in the United States for biodiesel production. The rise in oil prices helped the grain recover, also supported by good demand for American grains. Soybean contracts for delivery in January closed up 22.50 cents, or 2.24%, at US$10.26 1/4 per bushel. The March position was quoted at US$ 10.37 1/2 per bushel, with a gain of 22.75 cents, or 2.24%.

Source: Canal Rural