According to TF Agroeconômica, the rise in wheat prices, which was temporarily postponed by the Russian government's announcement of new minimum prices, is expected to intensify in the coming months. Russia's measure, which will make local wheat more expensive compared to international competitors, has caused exporters to rush to sell their stocks purchased from farmers.

The approaching seasonal period of river and railway freezing in the country is expected to delay shipments, leading the global market to seek wheat in the United States. In addition, Europe will face a 63% reduction in the availability of wheat from the previous harvest, which should further pressure prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange.

In Brazil, pressure on the wheat harvest is expected to persist during the months of November and December. The expectation is that, when the data begins to show that production is significantly lower than officially predicted, prices will begin to rise. This scenario reflects a supply and demand dynamic that favors an increase in values, especially considering the difficulties faced by other producing countries.

To mitigate the impact of the expected increase, mills are advised to take advantage of the current low in Chicago and place purchase orders. This strategy will allow them to establish a floor for raw material acquisition for the first half of 2025, ensuring protection against price fluctuations. Currently, prices for March 2025 are at R$1,176 per ton, while the values ​​for May and July are R$1,199.07 and R$1,212.08, respectively.

Source: Agrolink