Brazil's ethanol production in the 2024/25 harvest is expected to total 36.1 billion liters, including fuel produced from sugarcane and corn, the National Supply Company (Conab) estimated, indicating a 1.3% increase compared to last season.

This growth will be due to the increase in the production of corn ethanol, since the sugarcane harvest will be smaller than expected, due to the hot and dry weather previously, Conab said.

Conab now estimates sugarcane ethanol production at 28.86 billion liters, about 300 million liters more compared to the August projection, with more sugarcane being directed to fuel instead of sugar amid a smaller harvest. Even so, the volume will be 2.8% lower than in 2023/24.

Meanwhile, the country's corn ethanol production is expected to total 7.2 billion liters, compared to 6.9 billion in the August forecast, and is now estimated to increase 22.1% compared to last season. The growth of corn ethanol is happening with new projects and expansions coming on stream, which should be repeated in the coming years.

“The ongoing investment in the sector, including new industrial plants and expansions of part of the existing units, should increase another 2,500 thousand cubic meters (2.5 billion liters) in the next four years,” stated Conab, when commenting on the outlook for Mato Grosso, the largest producer of corn and ethanol from the cereal in Brazil.

According to a Conab report, expectations for production in Mato Grosso are optimistic, mainly due to the “abundant and low-cost raw material, associated with the opportunity for greater participation in the alcohol market in the Southeast, the largest consumer in the country.”

Corn ethanol production is increasing at a time when Petrobras is showing plans to return to the biofuel sector, with a projected investment of US$2.2 billion by 2029.

Brazil's 2024/25 sugarcane harvest, with processing already at an advanced stage, is estimated at 678.67 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% compared to the previous harvest due to lower productivity, said Conab, which reduced its projection compared to the August estimate (689.8 million tons).

However, the area destined for sugarcane harvesting in the country showed growth of 4.3%, reaching 8.7 million hectares.

On the other hand, Brazil's corn production is expected to increase to 119.81 million tons in the new season, 4 million more than the last cycle, according to Conab.

Sugar
Brazil's sugar production is estimated at 44 million tons, 3.7% lower than the 2023/24 harvest, due to the lower availability of sugarcane for milling, according to Conab, which in August projected a volume of around 46 million tons.

Meanwhile, production in the center-south, the main producing region, was estimated at 40.3 million tons, versus 42 million in the August projection and 42.3 million tons the previous year.

This projection is given a sugarcane harvest in the center-south of Brazil estimated at 616.86 million tons in 2024/25, Conab estimated this Thursday, with a reduction compared to the 626.2 million tons forecast in August.

Source: Forbes