The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for global wheat production in the 2024/25 harvest to 797.23 million tons on Tuesday (11/3), according to its monthly supply and demand report. In February, the expectation was 793.79 million tons. For corn, the highlight was the reduction in global stock forecasts. Regarding soybeans, the report brought few changes.

According to the Department, the global outlook for wheat in the harvest is for larger stocks, higher consumption, reduced trade and an increase in final stocks. Reserves are projected to increase by 5.4 million tons, to 1,066.7 million, mainly due to a revision of initial stocks in Turkey and higher production in Australia, Argentina and Ukraine.

Argentina had its estimate raised from 17.7 million to 18.5 million tons, with an increase in final stocks to 4.5 million tons and no changes in exports. Ukraine also had its production adjusted from 22.9 million to 23.4 million tons. Russia, in turn, is expected to produce 81.6 million tons, in a more modest adjustment than in other countries, raising its final stocks to 10.34 million tons.

Australian production was revised from 32 million to 34.11 million tons, and it is expected to export 26 million tons. Brazil had its import volume increased from 6.4 million to 6.5 million tons, thus raising its final stocks from 1.38 million to 1.48 million tons.

As for the US, the outlook for wheat is for larger stocks, unchanged domestic use, smaller exports and larger final stocks. Stocks are increasing due to the increase in imports, which are rising 10 million bushels to 140 million, at a continuous pace.

Corn

For corn, the USDA reduced its forecasts for global corn stocks at the end of the 2024/25 harvest. The volume expected by the American agency went from 290.31 million tons to 288.94 million tons, a volume 0.47% lower than that projected in February.

The revision included an increase of 1.7 million tons in the outlook for global production, now at 1.214 billion tons, and a reduction of 1.86 million tons in the estimate for the initial stocks of this season.

Regarding the world's largest producers of the grain, the USDA maintained its estimates for the volume to be harvested in 2024/25. The forecast for the US is a harvest of 377.63 million tons; for Brazil, 126 million; for China, 294.92 million; and for Argentina, 50 million tons.

For Brazil, the USDA cut the volume to be exported this season by 2 million tons, from 46 million to 44 million tons – a drop of 4.35%. Domestic consumption increased from 87.5 million tons to 88 million tons, resulting in final stocks of 2.96 million tons – 4.22% higher than the figure projected last month.

Soybeans

The USDA report did not show any significant changes in the soybean supply and demand scenario. The American agency maintained its estimate for the global harvest in 2024/25 at 420.76 million tons, the same figure released the previous month. The projection for final stocks in the world fell 2.4% in the monthly comparison, to 121.41 million tons. The figure was well below the expectations of market analysts, who expected 124.2 million tons.

For the American harvest, which has a significant impact on prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange, the figures remained unchanged, causing little impact on future trading. The USDA maintained its forecast for the US harvest at 118.84 million tons. Exports remained at 49.67 million tons, with stocks remaining at 10.34 million, in line with analysts' expectations, who expected a volume of 10.37 million tons.

As a result, May stocks, the most liquid in Chicago, rose 0.30% on the stock exchange, at around 1:20 p.m., to US$ 10.17 per bushel.

The data for Brazil also disappointed analysts' expectations. The department maintained its harvest forecast for the country at 169 million tons, compared to the 169.3 million tons expected by market agents.

There was also a forecast of a cut for the Argentine harvest. The USDA did not change its harvest forecast, which stood at 49 million tons, while the market was betting on a production of 48.6 million tons.

As for China, the world's largest importer of soybeans, the American agency predicted acquisitions of 109 million tons, the same number as in February. On the other hand, the forecast for final stocks in the country fell, from 45.96 million tons to 43.96 million in today's report.

Source: Visão Agro