The soybean market is trading with gains this Monday morning (31) awaiting the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture). At around 5:25 am (Brasília time), the oilseed futures rose 6 to 6.50 points in the most traded positions, with May worth US$ 10.29 and August, US$ 10.40 per bushel.

The grain futures find support, once again, in the rise of oil, which once again led the gains between the complex and grains, rising 0.9% and taking the first contract to US$ 296.30 per short ton.

The trend is that the day will be quite volatile for the market in Chicago, with the arrival of new USDA figures on quarterly stocks and the intention of planting area for the 2025/26 harvest. Expectations of a larger area for corn and a smaller area for soybeans provide some support for the prices of the oilseed and, if confirmed, explain analysts and consultants, could provide additional breathing room for prices, causing new increases.

"We believe that the corn area may increase more than the market is estimating and, consequently, there will be a greater reduction in the soybean area", says the general director of Grupo Labhoro, Ginaldo Sousa. "The market has already anticipated part of the increase expected for tomorrow in the last 3 trading sessions, even so, we believe that if the increase in area occurs in the way we projected - 38.65 million hectares for corn and falling to 33.5 million for soybeans, prices for May could break through US$ 10.30 and reach US$ 10.40".

The reports will be released today at 1:00 pm (Brasília time).

With less intensity, but still very present, there are other factors still under the market's attention. Demand from China - still very concentrated in Brazil, with record shipments in February - the harvest coming to an end in Brazil and the geopolitical situation are some of them.

"In addition to the trade war, we will have a possible increase in geopolitical tensions between the USA and Iran due to the ban on the use of nuclear bombs by the Iranian country", adds Sousa.

Likewise, the weather in the USA is another point of attention from now on. There are some concerns around the areas suffering from drought in the Midwest now, a few weeks before the start of planting, which also puts traders on alert.

"The rains during the weekend in the American Midwest were reasonable and nothing special. However, there was flooding in the Gulf states, where planting is about to begin", says the director of Labhoro.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas