Even in a year of negative biennial production, coffee production is expected to grow by 2.7% in the 2025 harvest compared to the volume harvested last season, estimated at 55.7 million bags. If the estimated volume is confirmed at the end of the cycle, this will be the largest ever recorded for a year of low biennial production, exceeding the harvest recorded in 2023 by 1.1%. The total area allocated to coffee cultivation is expected to increase by 0.8%, reaching 2.25 million hectares. The area in production is expected to fall by 1.4%, estimated at 1.86 million hectares, while the area in formation tends to increase by 12.3%, a movement expected for years of negative biennial production. The data are in the 2nd Survey of the 2025 Coffee Harvest, released this Tuesday (6) by the National Supply Company (Conab). The good result estimated for the total coffee harvest is mainly influenced by the 28.3% recovery in average productivity of conilon crops. As a result, the expected production for this species is estimated at 18.7 million bags, a new record for Conab's historical series. This result is mainly due to the regular climate during the most critical phases of the crops, which benefited positive flowering and the good quantity of fruits per rosette.

In Espírito Santo alone, the largest producer of conilon in the country, a production of 13.1 million bags is expected, an increase justified by the good rainfall seen in the north of the state, a region that corresponds to 69% of the area of ​​the species in the country. In Bahia, Conab also expects a recovery in the conilon harvest of 28.2%, estimated at 2.5 million bags. In this scenario, the state of Bahia regains its position as the 2nd largest producer of the species, surpassing Rondônia, where the expectation is a harvest of 2.28 million bags.

As for Arabica coffee, the species most affected by biennial production, Conab predicts a 6.6% reduction in the harvest, with a forecast of around 37 million bags. In Minas Gerais, the state with the largest area destined for Arabica production, a harvest of 25.65 million bags is expected. According to the survey, in addition to the expected impact of the plant's biennial cycle, between April and September of last year there was a long dry period and the crops faced instability, showing lower vegetative vigor, influencing the drop in the productive potential of the coffee plantations.

In São Paulo, average productivity was also impacted by the physiological effects of low biennial production, accompanied by the adverse weather conditions recorded in the producing regions. As a result, a 3.8% drop in crop performance is expected. On the other hand, the area allocated for production grew by 5.3%, reaching 196 thousand hectares, which compensates for the expected loss in productivity, resulting in an increase in production of 1.3%, estimated at 5.5 million bags.

Market – After the record coffee exports in 2024, when Brazil exported 50.5 million 60-kilo bags, shipments abroad showed a slight reduction in the first quarter of 2025. In the accumulated period from January to March 2025, Brazil exported 11.7 million 60-kilo bags, which represents a decrease of 1% compared to the same period of the previous year, according to consolidated data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). This reduction in export volume was already expected due to the restriction of domestic stocks in the initial months of 2025, influenced by the limitation of production in recent years and high exports in the previous year.

Even with the drop in traded volume, the value of international sales increased in the first quarter of 2025, a movement favored by the scenario of high coffee prices at the beginning of the year. From January to March 2025, Brazil exported US$ 4.1 billion, which represents an increase of 68.9% compared to the same period in 2024.

Product prices on the international market should remain under pressure throughout the year, even with the expectation of an increase in global production by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), since grain stocks remain at low levels, allowing prices to reach higher levels.

Detailed figures for Brazilian coffee production and market analyses of the grain can be found in the full Bulletin of the 2nd Coffee Survey - 2025 Harvest, published on the Company's website.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas