On Monday (09), the sugar market registered a slight recovery in international prices, with the July/25 contract traded at 16.61 cents per pound on the New York Stock Exchange, up 0.73%. The October/25 contract is quoted at 16.97 cents, up 0.65%. Despite the positive movement, the market still finds few opportunities for appreciation. When they occur, the increases are usually isolated and quickly pressured by projections of increased global supply.

In Brazil, sugarcane milling continues at an intense pace. According to the most recent UNICA report, 42.3 million tons were processed, a number above the average of the last five years (41.5 million), but still lower than that recorded in the 2024/25 harvest. In the accumulated total up to May 16, the milling totaled 76.7 million tons, compared to 96.2 million in the same period last year, a difference of almost 20 million tons.

In Asia, monsoon rains are already making their presence felt and putting even more pressure on the market, even with Indian production facing limitations imposed by policies to encourage ethanol production. Even so, the general expectation is that the global market will remain with a surplus in sugar supply.

However, this surplus does not represent guaranteed comfort for the sector. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), daily global sugar consumption is around 500 thousand tons. Therefore, even with projected surpluses, any downward revision in Brazilian production could reignite volatility and impact prices throughout the second half of the year.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas