The sugar market started the day with gains this Thursday (17), reflecting a recovery on international exchanges. In New York, the October/25 contract is trading at 16.79 cents per pound, up 1.39%, while the March/26 contract is up 1.16%, trading at 17.43 cents. In London, the October/25 contract is also rising, trading at US$484.30 per ton, up 1.21%.

According to an analysis by Hedgepoint Global Markets, prices near 16 cents/lbp indicate a reduction in concerns about the diversion of sugarcane for ethanol production in Brazil. However, the consultancy warns that market fundamentals remain fragile, which could limit further advances to levels such as 17 or 18 cents/lbp.

The devaluation of the real is seen as a factor that could encourage an increase in Brazilian exports, expanding global supply and, consequently, putting pressure on prices. On the other hand, Chinese buyers have adopted a more cautious stance given the recent appreciation of sugar, which could negatively impact demand.

In the production scenario, concerns about the size of the Brazilian harvest persist. According to data released by Unica last Monday, accumulated sugar production in the Center-South region through June of the 2025/26 harvest fell 14.3% compared to the same period last year, totaling 12.249 million tons. Conab, in turn, last month reported a 3.4% drop in national sugar production in the 2024/25 harvest, to 44.118 million tons, due to lower sugarcane productivity caused by drought and excessive heat.

Internationally, the prospect of increased sugar production in India and Thailand is weighing negatively on prices. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories of India projects that the country's production will grow by 19% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 35 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board of Thailand reports that the country's production in 2024/25 is expected to increase by 14%, totaling 10 million tonnes.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas