The wheat market began trading this Thursday (12) on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) with a positive balance, with the most traded contract quoted at US$5.29/bu, representing a 0.37% increase compared to the previous close.

This positive environment for wheat reflects a combination of factors that have influenced price formation in the futures market, in a context still marked by ample stocks, weather risks, and technical buying flows.

One explanation for this morning's behavior lies in the international physical and speculative market. Recent data shows that wheat futures in Chicago have been registering gains amid renewed concerns about frost and cold conditions in producing areas of Russia, which could affect the continuity of winter crops and create price risks even without a direct expected impact on this year's production. This type of weather factor often fuels expectations of relative scarcity, leading speculators to repurchase short positions in the futures market and push prices upwards.

Furthermore, traders are closely watching the release of official USDA reports, including weekly export sales data expected in the coming hours, which usually brings volatility to the market. Anticipations of stronger or weaker export volumes can influence investor sentiment and justify price adjustments in the very short term, such as those seen today in Chicago.

Even amidst the prospect of still comfortable global inventories after the latest USDA supply and demand report, the market finds support in the combination of weather risks, expectations for export data, and technical position hedging, which together help sustain the gains observed at the opening of trading this Thursday.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas