Soybean futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade resumed trading in positive territory this Tuesday (8), following a pause on Monday (7) when U.S. markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday. However, the upward movement is moderate.

Around 7:30 AM (Brasília time), prices showed slight gains—ranging from 1.75 to 4.50 points across key contract months—pushing the November contract to $13.11 and the March contract to $13.32 per bushel. The soybean market is once again tracking gains in corn and, notably, wheat, which is up more than 2% this Tuesday.

Trading resumed following a week marked by high volatility. On Friday (4), prior to the holiday, soybean futures had closed lower, pressured by technical profit-taking and investor positioning ahead of the long weekend.

Chinese demand remains a key factor monitored by market participants. China continues to play a crucial role in shaping expectations for U.S. exports, particularly as the new U.S. crop begins to hit the market.

This scenario is especially significant because Brazilian exportable stocks are dwindling as the season progresses, while the next major South American supply will not be available until early 2027. Consequently, the gap between the end of Brazilian supplies and the arrival of the new South American crop could boost demand for U.S. soybeans.

In addition to demand, the market is closely watching U.S. crop conditions and the pace of the harvest. Traders continue to monitor weather forecasts for the Midwest, particularly at this critical stage for determining soybean yield potential. Higher temperatures and moisture availability in the coming weeks could influence final crop development and, consequently, estimates for U.S. production.

At the same time, the market is already turning its attention to the next monthly supply and demand report from the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture), due this Friday (11), which may provide updated estimates for U.S. production, yields, stocks, and exports.

Another factor drawing attention this Tuesday is the sharp rise in oil prices. Brent crude neared $100 per barrel—gaining nearly 2%—amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rising oil prices could provide indirect support to the oilseed complex through the outlook for biofuels, particularly soybean oil.

Meanwhile, the sharp surge in energy prices is increasing volatility in global markets and could influence investor behavior.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas